Update Summer 2024
Although we have not held a full conference since May 2023, the Countryside Forum is still active.
Lord Lucas accepted an invitation from the Chairman to become Vice-Chairman and has been busy working on our behalf in the House of Lords. In particular, he has been discussing with Lord Randall how we might attract a wider audience to our conferences, notably amongst environmental organisations.
As the Chairman wrote in his letter of 18th April, we intended to hold a number of small private meetings, under Chatham House rules, with a selection of those organisations which have shown some reluctance to join the wider debate, to try to encourage them to engage with those whose views they do not necessarily agree, but who are all concerned with the welfare of the countryside.
Those meetings will still take place but have been put back due to the General Election and will now be held in the autumn. The next full conference will be held in the New Year, probably in early February either in the House of Lords or at Savills headquarters in Margaret Street. We are grateful to Savills for their continued sponsorship. The theme will be the rural issues, challenges and opportunities, facing the new Government and its progress after the first hundred days.
The website has been brought up to date with new information added, including the Annual Report and Accounts to 31st March 2024. We hope that it provides a useful resource, so please have a look and tell us your views.
We hope very much for your continued support and look forward to seeing you at our next conference in the New Year.
Andrew Davis Peter Geldart
Hon Secretary Hon Treasurer
News from 3rd August 2023
Eggs Imported
Production of eggs in this country has fallen to such an extent that far more are being imported. In the first half of 2023, 11% fewer eggs were produced than in the same period last year, just 33,300 tonnes. This has led to very tight supply and a huge increase in the number imported, almost doubling in the first five months of this year. As a result, prices have risen by 41% on a year ago to 134.2 pence per dozen during the second quarter. The slump in number of hens was due to low profitability largely caused by the increase in fuel and feed costs. However, with higher prices, numbers are now recovering and a rise in egg production should follow.
Arable Land Use
The AHDB has published figures for the areas of arable crops being harvested this summer. The wheat area is down 3% on last year to 1.75 million hectares, whilst barley is up by 5%, both winter (+2%) and spring sown (+7%). After years of decline, the area of oilseed rape is up by 11% as higher prices encouraged farmers to try the crop again. The area of oats is by down by 7% year on year.
Fertiliser Production must be Protected
The Parliamentary Select Efra Committee has published a report urging the Government to ensure the continued production of ammonia and nitrate fertiliser in this country. The sole manufacturer, American owned CF Fertilisers, produces only 40% of UK demand and has recently announced the permanent closure of its Billingham ammonia plant. Both the US and EU support production and the Committee has urged our Government to follow suit.
August Weather
Whilst temperatures in the Mediterranean region are abating a little to 30+°C rather than 40+°C, there seems little chance of a heatwave in this country. The kink in the Jet Stream over central France is likely to remain, ensuring unsettled weather to the north. There may be some warmer drier spells but the forecast is for more cool, wet and windy weather. This is not helpful for farmers with most of the harvest still to cut, especially given the high cost of drying the grain.
News from 8th June 2023
Increased Bird Populations
There have been several welcome reports of increases in bird populations across the country. The RSPB has reported a rise in nightjars resulting in a move from the red to the amber list of conservation concern. The Game and Wildlife Conservation Trust has reported large increases in several species on its Rotherfield Park Demonstration Project in Hampshire. These include linnet (+114%), whitethroat (+68%), skylark (+34%) and yellowhammer (+7%). According to the British Trust for Ornithology, over the last decade skylark numbers nationally have risen by 10%, 20% in some areas, whilst corn buntings have increased by 35%. It is very encouraging to see that conservation efforts by farmers and others are being rewarded.
River Wye Downgraded
The River Wye, along with its tributary the Lugg, is an Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty, once revered as providing some of the best fishing in the country. But largely due to pollution of sewage and from farming, Natural England has downgraded its ecological status to ‘unfavourable – declining’. The Wildlife Trusts has complained of ‘a shocking failure by agencies in England and Wales that are supposed to protect this once beautiful river’.
Farm Incomes Up
Defra has published estimates for the Total Income from Farming (TIFF) for 2022, showing a rise of £1.1 billion or 16% over the 2021 results to £7.94 billion, the highest in real terms since 1995. The figures reflect a huge increase in sale prices, for example wheat peaked at around £360 per tonne a year ago. There was also a massive rise in input costs, notably fuel and fertiliser. But those farmers who bought early and sold at the top made a hefty profit. However, since then prices have fallen, for example wheat is worth £160 today, whilst input costs have declined more slowly. As a result there is likely to be a big fall in TIFF for 2023.
Dairy Losses
Dairy farmers face big losses again following cuts in the price paid for milk by processors. For example, Arla is now paying 35 pence per litre, down 16p from the peak earlier this year. Prices tend to drop at this time of year as grass becomes available but input costs are still high and most farmers will make losses at these levels.
News from 25th May 2023
Food Summit
Some 80 people were invited to a ‘farm-to-fork’ food summit at 10 Downing Street last week. They included farmers, processors and retailers to discuss how the food supply chain might be improved. Reports of the proceedings have been limited but no doubt more information will seep out and be analysed over the coming days. At least it shows that the Prime Minister recognises that all is not well and that some remedial action is necessary.
Bird Flu in Humans
Workers who come into contact with poultry infected with avian influenza are tested for the disease themselves. It was reported last week that two such workers had tested positive although it is not clear whether they were actually infected or if their noses and throats were merely contaminated. Neither had any symptoms and both have since tested negative. There have been cases of human infection but it is extremely rare and there is no indication of human to human transmission.
Maize Planted
The maize crop has been planted over the past week or two, a little for grain but most for silage for cattle rations during the winter or for feedstock for Anaerobic Digestion plants. Last year, the fear was that there might not be enough moisture for the crop to establish. This year, sowing was delayed because the soil was too wet! The recent warmer weather should get it started.
Farmers Pessimistic about the Future
A recent survey of farmers by the agri-tech business Hectare found that 67% had no confidence in the future of food production in the UK. The biggest concerns were a lack of clarity about future support schemes, the phasing out of the Basic Payment and volatility of sale prices and input costs. A huge majority thought that production is more likely to contract than expand with only 10% confident that it will increase as inflationary pressures ease.
News from 11th May 2023
Whisky Galore
Sales of Scotch whisky are booming with a total global value of over £6 billion last year. Exports rose by 37% by value whilst by volume grew by 21% to 1.67 billion 70cl bottles. It is also being increasingly treated as an investment with the value of the Knight Frank Rare Whisky Index growing by 370% over the past decade.
World Hunger
As food inflation in this country hits record highs, a recent Global Report on Food Crises makes distressing reading. As a result of war, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in particular, the Covid pandemic, extreme weather events and economic mismanagement, the number of people suffering from acute hunger and malnutrition reached 258 million across 58 countries in 2022. This is the highest figure since the first Global Report in 2016 and represents 22.7% of the analysed population.
Dutch plans to close livestock farms
Plans by the Dutch Government to force the closure of livestock farms have been approved by the European Union. The Dutch Government claims that the move is necessary to reduce emissions of nitrogen oxides and ammonia by 50% by 2030 to meet EU targets. Around 3,000 small and medium sized farms near environmentally sensitive areas will be eligible for payments of up to 120% of the market value of the business if owners agree to close down. The proposals have been met with howls of protest from farmers supported by prominent politicians, celebrities and the general public.
Wild venison Quality Assurance Scheme
Defra and the Forestry Commission have launched a national quality assurance scheme for wild venison. The scheme aims to improve traceability of the meat, increase buyer confidence and support woodland management. Defra said that deer management is essential to protect existing woodland and newly planted saplings as the UK’s deer population is at its highest level for 1,000 years with an estimated two million population. Numbers grew rapidly during the Covid pandemic when the closure of pubs and restaurants caused a crash in venison prices. Applications are invited from deer managers, processors and butchers in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, Scotland already has a scheme, who must comply with a set of audited standards ensuring that carcasses are correctly handled and premises are registered as food businesses with the local authority.
News from 27th April 2023
Food Inflation
Inflation in food prices continues to rise, hitting 19.2% last month, levels not seen for 45 years. This has held up overall inflation which fell from 10.4% to 10.1%, not as much as expected. Some of the more startling figures are Cheddar cheese up by 49% in the last twelve months, milk up by 40%, eggs up by 28% and bread by 21%. Wholesale food prices on global markets have been falling recently, down 20% from the peak, but it takes time before this is reflected in retail prices in shops, although several supermarkets have reduced the price of milk in recent days.
Big Farmland Bird Count
The results of this year’s Big Farmland Bird Count run by the Game and Wildlife Conservation Trust have now been published. Over 1,700 farmers and land managers took part recording 149 species across 1.5 million acres counting more than 460,000 birds. 33 species from the Red List for Birds of Conservation Concern and 47 from the Amber List were recorded, including starling, lapwing, fieldfare and linnet. The annual count that took place in February was the tenth so trends can be recognised. This year there were fewer land managers taking part but more birds were counted both in numbers and species.
Avian Influenza
The national Housing Order of poultry imposed on 7th November last year in an attempt to minimise the spread of avian ‘flu was lifted on Tuesday 18th April. Risk levels have been reduced so poultry need not be kept indoors except in certain hot spots. But the disease has not died out and strict biosecurity measures remain in force. As laying hens are now allowed out, eggs can once again be sold as free range.
Commodity Prices
Lamb prices have been rising, both for last year’s crop and for the first of this season now coming to market, and are reaching towards £150 per lamb. Beef prices are also high but milk has been falling as have grain prices. Wheat was back to £185 per tonne last week compared to £308 a year ago whilst oilseed rape has fallen to £367 from £820 last April. Export markets for wheat are limited, partly due to grain exported from Ukraine, and it is expected that there will be significant carry-over stocks.
News from 13th April 2023
Natural Markets Framework
Amongst the documents published by Defra on ‘Green Day’, Thursday 30th March, was the Nature Markets Framework. It sets out the principles for regulation of nature markets that include carbon capture and biodiversity offsetting. This is urgently needed as the markets for companies to invest in the environment are developing piecemeal, but this document contains little detail.
Welsh Gamebird Consultation
Natural Resources Wales on behalf of the Welsh Government has launched a twelve week consultation on a plan to license gamebird releasing. In effect the proposal would ban the rearing and releasing of pheasants and partridges except under licence. This follows the ban on shooting on public land that came into effect in 2019.
Rights of Way
The Countryside and Rights of Way Act 2000 set a deadline of 1st January 2026 for claims for public rights of way based on historic evidence. This deadline was repealed in February 2022. Following calls by the CLA, Defra has now announced that a deadline will be re-imposed, this time on 1st January 2031.
Gene Editing now Legal
The Genetic Technology (Precision Breeding) Act gained royal assent on 23rd March. Gene editing is now legal in the breeding of plants and farm animals which means that it is now possible to manipulate the genes that currently exist in a plant or animal to gain advantage such as yield, disease or drought resistance or other beneficial characteristic. Transgenics, the introduction of genes from another organism, remains illegal. The Act applies only to England, gene editing remains illegal in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.
News from 16th February 2023
Bovine TB Vaccine Trial
A cattle vaccine for bovine TB is only useful if a test can distinguish between infected and vaccinated animals. Laboratory research using a vaccine and a skin test, Diva or Detect Infected among Vaccinated Animals, has shown that both are safe and work well. Now field trials are starting on at least five commercial livestock farms across England involving 600 animals, half of which will be vaccinated and half given a placebo. If these trials are successful, there could be a full roll-out by 2025, the target date.
Black Grouse for Sussex?
A feasibility study funded by Natural England is being undertaken to assess whether black grouse should be released in Ashdown Forest in the High Wield of East Sussex, one of the last strongholds of the species in the South-East until the early 1900s. The proposal has been widely derided as totally unrealistic. The 2,500 hectares of Ashdown Forest is not a large area for black grouse habitat and, as the largest area with open public access in the South-East, it attracts over one and a half million visitors each year, a level of disturbance that black grouse would not tolerate.
Milk Price Falls
The price paid to farmers for milk in December was 51.51 pence per litre according to Defra, 49% higher than the previous year. But it has tumbled since with a projection by AHDB of a 5.6 ppl reduction over the next three months. This will squeeze margins leading to losses, although feed costs are expected to fall back and turn out to spring pastures is not far away.
Cambridge University Labrador Research
Scientists at Cambridge University are conducting a research project into the link between genetics and obesity in Labrador dogs. 34 to 59% of dogs are estimated to be obese and the problem is getting worse, just as in humans. It is hoped that this research will help understanding of the factors leading to obesity in dogs and that it may provide information relevant to humans too.
News from 5th January 2023
Flowers’ Electric Field
A recent study by Bristol University shows that flowers emit a negative electric field to attract pollinators, many of which carry a positive electric charge. When fertiliser or pesticides are applied to crops, the electric field is disrupted for up to 25 minutes discouraging insects from visiting the flowers.
2022 Warmest Year Ever
The Met Office has announced that 2022 was the warmest year ever in the UK. Although the average temperature for December has yet to be confirmed, the year’s average temperature will likely beat the previous all-time record of 9.88°C set in 2014. Every month was hotter than average with the exception of December when there was a fortnight of notably cold weather.
Farm Diesel Theft
Amidst the big rise in rural crime, the theft of diesel from farms has become a big problem, doubling during 2022 according to the NFU Mutual Insurance Company. Thieves have drained storage tanks, often damaging them in the process causing leaks, and even siphoned fuel from tractors and other vehicles. Whilst, of course, the value has risen, most farm diesel is the red tax-reduced variety which is illegal to use on the road with minor exceptions.
Oxford Farming Conference
The Oxford Farming Conference is being held this week from the 4th to 6th January. Amongst the speakers is Mark Spencer, Minister for farming, which is a departure from usual practice as the Secretary of State normally addresses the conference. Also being held at the same time is the Oxford Real Framing Conference. The programme appears to be available only to those who buy tickets but Chris Packham is amongst the speakers.