Blog Posts

New Year Prospects

As the chimes of Big Ben usher in a New Year, as you savour the glass of fizz in front of a log fire to keep out the winter chill, it is traditional to look back at the months past and forward to the year to come.

            2022 was an unprecedented year for many reasons.  The impact of the Covid pandemic declined at least in terms of personal freedom and the threat of serious illness but left a legacy of rapidly rising inflation.  This was exacerbated massively by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February.  The immediate effect was a huge increase in the price of oil and gas but, perhaps the most dramatic from a farmer’s point of view, was a quadrupling of the price of ammonium nitrate fertiliser.  Even as the price of oil has eased slightly, the cost of fertiliser is still at least double what it was eighteen months ago.

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Christmas message

Life must have been grim under Oliver Cromwell’s puritan regime during the Commonwealth of the 1650s.  Even Christmas was abolished.  Mind you, life is fairly gloomy today with one Christmas effectively cancelled caused by Covid lockdowns, paralysis of many public services, especially transport, and a squeeze on household budgets due to high inflation.  But back in 1660, with the restoration of Charles II, Christmas was revived and, over the years, became more of an excuse for a secular festival than a religious celebration.

Christmas is a time of joy, of roaring log fires, of family gatherings.  Over three or four days, we eat and drink too much, we exchange gifts and visit members of our families whom we see rarely at other times of year.  What began as a couple of days off has become a fortnight’s holiday, two weeks when the whole country closes down.

            In the commercial razzmatazz, we tend to lose the real point of Christmas.  Even the tradition of Christmas carols has become so hackneyed, with piped versions playing in all shopping precincts, that few ever consider the words or the meaning they convey.  A decreasing number of us go to church to celebrate the birth of Christ and spread the message of ‘peace on earth, goodwill toward men’.  There is precious little sign of that in the Holy Land where it all began two thousand years ago but, then, neither side is Christian. 

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The Country Food Trust

There have been some fundamental changes to all of our lives over the past six years, the Brexit referendum, the Covid pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  It is hard to overestimate the impact of these events.

            The most obvious result has been inflation bringing a cost of living crisis, particularly in food and energy.  It is shocking that, according to the latest figures, almost ten million people in this country are struggling to feed themselves adequately and, for many, it is a choice between food and warmth.  Fortunately, the weather has been exceptionally mild this autumn but there are months of winter still to come.

            Food prices rose by 16.2% in the year to October but the cost of many basic foodstuffs has risen far higher than that.  Milk is 65% more expensive than a year ago, eggs 22%, pasta 34%, flour and cereals 28%.  Problems started in the fruit and vegetable sector when the Brexit vote resulted in far fewer European workers coming to the UK for harvest, resulting in crops rotting in the fields.  This year, the situation has been exacerbated by summer drought bringing poor yields, especially for root vegetables.  The shortage of labour also had an impact on other areas of the food and hospitality industry.

            Covid brought its own problems, particularly for hospitality, with knock-on effects throughout the food chain.  Then the war in Ukraine disrupted trade in goods from oil and gas to wheat, oilseed and fertiliser.  The impact was profound with rampant inflation of costs in energy, food, transport and labour.  The increase in the cost of nitrate fertiliser, from less than £300 to over £800 per tonne, pushed up the price of wheat and other crops.  That raised the price of animal feed and thus the cost of dairy products, meat and eggs.

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Access to the countryside

It was during the Covid lockdowns that the benefit to health and wellbeing of fresh air and exercise became more widely recognised.  Leaving home for a walk was one of the few legitimate reasons to breach the curfew.

            We have an extensive network of rights of way in England, over 140,000 miles of footpaths, bridleway and byways.  They are recorded on the Definitive Map which is maintained by local authorities and came into existence due to the National Parks and Access to the Countryside Act 1949.  Most were recorded in the 1950s when there were far fewer using them than there are today.  As a result, it might be argued that not enough care was taken to ensure that they gave appropriate access to the countryside.  Certainly, many are not in the best place for the recreational user of the 21st century, leading straight through a busy commercial farmyard for example.

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Avian influenza

The country is in the grip of an epidemic caused by a virus that is bringing massive loss of life.  It is not Covid, although that is still with us, and the mortality is amongst birds not humans.  Avian influenza or bird ‘flu has become a serious threat.

            It is not supposed to be like this, at least it used not to be.  The spread of bird ‘flu was thought to be caused by migratory birds so the outbreaks occurred when birds come here for the winter and died away in summer.  But now it seems to have become endemic and is with us all the year perhaps because it has become established in seabirds.  Around the coast of the British Isles we have some of the most important colonies of seabirds in the world.  The Farne Islands off Northumberland, for example, are home to around 200,000 including Arctic terns, Atlantic puffins, guillemots, kittiwakes and razorbills. 

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Autumn

Autumn is a glorious time of year.  Grass has recovered from the heat of summer and looks green rather than straw, whilst trees and shrubs exhibit vibrant colours of red, orange and brown.  Of course, it can also be a time of storms with heavy rain and gales as the daylight dwindles and nights turn colder.

The colours of autumn vary with the weather.  The green of plants is due to the chlorophyll, the wonderful substance that can absorb sunlight and carbon dioxide to produce sugars and emit oxygen.  At this time of year, deciduous plants are beginning to close down for winter, brought on by falling temperatures and shorter daylength.  Lower temperatures destroy chlorophyll but the leaves contain other pigments including yellow xanthophyll, orange carotene and red anthocyanin, which come to the fore as the chlorophyll declines.  On warm days as the sugars become more concentrated more anthocyanin is produced enhancing the red colour.  Hard frosts however, destroy the other pigments too and the leaves soon fall off.  The best autumn colours can be seen in a period of warm sunny days and cold, but not frosty nights.

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English Wine

2022 may be an exceptional vintage for English wines.  2018 was the best year so far but this harvest may match or even surpass it.  The reason, of course, was the long hot summer; indeed the extent of climate change is gradually turning the UK into a primary wine producing country with success in international competition.

            We have come a long way in thirty years.  It was thought that growing grapes in this country was a risky business because of the threat of late frosts and cool damp summers, ideal for the spread of mildew.  The varieties grown thirty years ago were mostly German style varieties, the most popular grown in 1990 was Müller-Thurgau.  But the warming climate has allowed more French style varieties to be grown, this year the most popular are Chardonnay, Pinot Noir and Pinot Meunier, best known as the blend for champagne.

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The Game Fair

The Game Fair was held at Ragley Hall again on the last weekend in July.  The weather was ideal, fine but not too hot.  Having taken over an hour to drive the last couple of miles last year, I set out early with a flask of coffee and biscuits for breakfast in the queue.  In the event, I arrived at 8 am and was parked five minutes later.  Luckily, the GWCT (Game and Wildlife Conservation Trust) had some excellent pastries and coffee as I attended an early press release.

            The showground seemed to be better laid out this year with broader avenues and more open space.  As a result, some suggested that there were less people there but I think it was just the extra space.  Certainly, the organisers claimed a record crowd but the only figure I have seen is 119,378 for 2021.  As usual, the event started with a mass firing of black powder in the main ring.

            For those who have never been, it is a huge celebration of country sports, from shooting to falconry, fishing to dog competitions, said to be the largest in Europe.  There is always a great atmosphere, cheerful and friendly, but last year was exceptional coming after months of lockdown and restrictions.  This year, the mood was remarkably upbeat considering the challenges that country sports face, especially lowland shooting.

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Implications of climate change

The recent record temperature and the prospect of a drought being declared set me thinking of the practical implication of climate change for farmers.  The first six months of this year have been the driest since 1976 with February the only month when rainfall was above average.

            I vividly remember 1976.  The previous Michaelmas, I had taken on the tenancy of Cannon Heath Farm, an extra 1,000 acres on the south side of Watership Down.  Full of enthusiasm and with a large bank loan, the harvest of 1976 was disappointing, to put it mildly.  Harvest was over by the end of July and most crops achieved little more than half the budgeted yield.  At least the cost of harvest was low and the drier was redundant!  The planned investment into a breeding ewe flock had to be scaled back significantly.

            It was not as hot as this year, but the warm sunny days continued for more than two months, unlike this year when, the brief heatwave apart, there have been cooler cloudy days too, just no rain!  As I write this, combines are cutting winter wheat and oilseed rape, even winter beans.  Reports of winter barley were reasonably good but it is too soon to get much idea of the rest of harvest.  Those who have given an indication of winter wheat suggest that it has held up remarkably well with little damage to yield or quality caused by drought.  That may be because there was some rain at the end of May, a critical time.

            What impact will climate change have on arable crops over the coming years?  In theory, a higher level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere may boost yields but only if there are no other limiting factors.  Milder damp winters should extend the growing season, vital if harvest is to come earlier.  It may not matter if crops ripen in late June and early July if there was more growth in winter and spring, although day length plays its part too in crop development.

            There have been new crops grown over the past fifty years or, at least, a larger area, and this will surely continue, whilst geographic range moves northwards.  Oilseed rape was brought in by the Romans, it is thought, and there are certainly records of it being grown in the 14th century.  But it was almost unknown on British farms until the mid-1970s when it suddenly became very popular.  Very large areas were grown until neonicotinoid insecticides were banned after several years of restrictions, and decimation by flea beetle attack persuaded many farmers to give up growing the crop.  The area is increasing again as agronomists learn how to combat flea beetle attack without using insecticides.

            Rapeseed is one of the most widely used cooking oils, another being sunflower oil.  The area where sunflowers are grown has moved north through France, could we be growing them here?  Planted at the end of April, they should be ripe to harvest by the end of September.  One report suggested that late frost could take a toll but another said that they are relatively frost tolerant.  Certainly, soil temperature needs to be above 6°C when the seed is planted so a cold spring might be a problem.  They need relatively little fertiliser but are somewhat susceptible to disease, particularly sclerotina.  Yields of 5 tonnes per hectare have been achieved in France and Germany.

            Whilst speaking at the AGM of the Berkshire CPRE recently, I was asked why we import soya from Brazil, encouraging farmers to destroy the rain forest.  In 2019, some 3.5 million tonnes of soya beans, either whole beans or oil and meal, were imported, 65% from South America.  75% is used in livestock rations but there is also a growing market for human consumption.  When soya is crushed, the result is 20% oil and 80% cake or meal which is fed to animals.  With its combination of amino acids, it is high quality protein, unmatched by the peas or beans that are currently produced here.  So could we grow soya in the UK?

            A report published in 2017 claimed that 5,000 ha were grown that year with the prospect of 10,000 ha the following year.  So it would appear to be becoming more widespread, although I have not heard of any farmer growing the crop.  As a legume, it could be a valuable restorative option, providing high quality oil and protein whilst reducing imports.  Like sunflowers, it is sown in late April and harvested in late September or October.  As most soya grown in South America is GM, the beans grown here might command a premium.

            Maize is another crop that was rarely seen on British farms until the 1970s but is now grown widely, ensiled for animal fodder, as feedstock for anaerobic digestion plants or even a little for grain.  Perhaps the biggest success has been vines with a huge increase in the area and range in recent years.  Our sparkling wines have even competed successfully with champagne!  These trends will surely continue.

            The problem for grazing livestock is the lack of grass growth in a summer drought.  It is ironic that ruminants may be able to graze through the winter but may need supplementary fodder in mid-summer!  Lucerne and sainfoin, both legumes and drought resistant, may be more widely grown.

            The combination of climate change and the skill of plant breeders may well result in a broader range of crops grown in the UK, especially when gene editing becomes more widely used to speed up the development of new varieties.  One risk is that climate change may also bring new pests and diseases to threaten crop production.  But farming is remarkably resilient and there will be opportunities to exploit.

Dyson Farming

Dyson Farming

Sir James Dyson is one of the largest landowners in England with some 35,000 acres.  Although not from a farming family, he helped out on farms in North Norfolk as a youngster and has a deep love of farming and the countryside.  Thus it should be no surprise that, on the back of his success in business, he should invest in farmland.

            His first purchase was the Nocton Estate in Lincolnshire in 2012, to which he has added over the years, now owning around 28,000 acres in the county.  He bought land in Gloucestershire north of Bath, then the Churn Estate on the Berkshire/Oxfordshire border formerly owned by Reading University.  The following year he acquired the adjoining gallops, then the land at Compton which had been occupied by the Institute of Animal Health.  That took his land holding in the area to 4,700 acres.

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